The chance of rain over the weekend has vanished in a puff of autumnal unpredictability. There could still be rain on Monday, but the chance is only 20%. I won't count on it. At least my remaining leaf pile will remain dry, and the clogged gutters won't overflow. The gutters were clean only a couple of weeks ago, and now they are full of leaves and pine needles again. The walnut tree's leaves have turned entirely yellow in just a few days, and the mulberry's leaves are getting there. But the thing that tells me that colder weather is on the way is the passage of the first flight of migrating waterfowl. I heard them ten minutes ago as I stood on the back porch. The fowl are sometimes wrong, but more often about the end of winter than its beginning. It could come within a week, if the birds are correct.We shall see.