September 23rd, 2002

caillebotte_man at his window

Hautumn, and Stuff

It is unwise for me to wait until after dinner to write. After eating, I get loggy, and my brain wants to sleep. But the afternoon was busy. I picked up some pictures from the drug store. I am displeased. Of the three pictures of deer that were on these two rolls of film, none turned out well. One was not even printed, as it was too dark. (If I'd been using the Olympus instead of the Fuji, there might have been something there. The Olympus is much better in low-light conditions.) The other two pictures were taken late in the evening, with the telephoto lens at its maximum length. One is quite blurry, and the other noticeably blurry, but maybe still usable, though the deer looks a bit like a >statue of a deer, unfortunately. Feh.

But the most displeasing thing about this batch of pictures is that the paper on which they are printed is quite thin. This is further evidence that the economy is still heading down the tank. The film lab is trying to cut back on costs, rather than raising prices (and then hoping that few people notice.) Look for your Hershey Bars to shrink in size, soon. They've already downsized several brands of toilet paper. (Heh. I always notice that, first.) We seem to be heading toward another bout of that bugbear of the 1970s which Ronald Reagan found so effective in his campaign against Jimmy Carter- stagflation, in which costs rise (inflation) while the economy shrinks. Long thought to be impossible, the sudden appearance of these conditions at that time sent classical economists fumbling about for explanations, and failing to find them.

Personally, I'm not expecting stagflation to happen now, since I'm pretty sure that I do know what caused it (not being an economist and thus blinkered by established theories which limit the possible explanations), and I don't think that the circumstances which led to it exist any longer. (Briefly, I think that the computerization of transactions by the banking industry which was taking place at the time had the effect of vastly increasing the speed with which the money supply was moving round, and, thus, increasing the virtual size of the money supply, which caused inflation. Neither the industry nor the government saw that this was happening, and the government therefore followed a strong anti-inflationary policy, which sent the economy into a recession.) But if business (thick witted as it is) thinks that stagflation is coming back, we're likely to see some interesting folly over the next couple of years, and there's no telling where it might lead.

Anyway, economics bores me these days, so to hell with it. The persistent Summer weather continues, and the afternoon was too hot for walking (yesterday, Sacramento endured a record high temperature of 103F for the date), so I must take advantage of the relative coolness of the last few minutes of daylight. I'm off!